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不确定性的消失

2023年9月13日

图片来源: Vagueonthehow

我们应该称之为不确定性的衰落.  We are uncertain as to falling or rising inflation; uncertain as to higher interest rates, one of the largest factors in valuing real estate; uncertain as to true new values of real estate; uncertain as to whether we are now in a recession, or will be going into a recession or whether there will be no recession; uncertain as to when we will enter the Next Normal phase, 或者不确定性本身是否是下一个新常态.  Aarrgghh.

 

Let’s whip around San Antonio and see how our bit of the Universe is doing right now. 下面的数值是针对全国市场的, 不是圣安东尼奥, 来自Green Street Advisors, 顶级商业地产分析师.

 

办公室:房价下跌31%

The most uncertain part of our market is office buildings and especially downtown.  卡斯特罗市长的市中心十年, while successful in stimulating tremendous growth in residential and office development in the center city, 在2020年以砰的一声结束, 这是疫情封锁的最后10年.

 

现在, San Antonio and Austin are fast growing markets and our fair city is often considered one of the most resilient markets.  然而,Rackspace留下了一个1.3-million square foot hole when they left their former headquarter building, 前身为温莎公园购物中心, 在Windcrest.

 

USAA保险公司, located in downtown SA and one of the biggest job-maker entries into the city core with its acquisitions of One Riverwalk and Bank of America Plaza, moved all of their employees back to the main campus on IH-10.  左边也是.  Rented occupancy is now below 80% and physical occupancy is below 50%, as the hybrid work week of Tuesday – Wednesday – Thursday has taken hold from simply Work from 365bet苹果客户端.  这种趋势是全国性的,但我们也不能幸免.

 

The only bright spot is the Pearl District with the Oxbow office building, Jefferson Bank Building and Bank of America Building all doing 好吧.  加入索托, 六层168,000 square foot office building on the former Cavender Cadillac location, 就在百老汇的南边, and that sums up what is certainly working in El Centro.

 

多户型:房价下跌20%

建筑业表现不错,没有放缓太多.  我们正在按期交货,今年的销售量是1000台, 另外6人,明年6万美元,明年6万美元,000 in 2025.  从确定一个新地点开始,大约需要3年时间, 当项目处于租赁阶段, so we can see the new delivery pipeline out for several years to come.   Occupancies have dropped from 93% down to 88% and rents have softened.  The demand for housing long term is good, but right now, not so good.

 

市中心的住宅市场仍然表现良好. Weston Urban is forging ahead with its 300 Main 354-unit Class AA 32-story high-rise residential structure, even while its Frost Bank Plaza is less than fully leased.  Weston is also planning the Continental Block mixed-use development with over 300 units. 现在 consider the redevelopment of the Tower Life Building from office to residential.  These are being added into the 10,000 or so apartment units built in the Decade of Downtown.  I do not understand the dynamic of moving downtown when jobs seem to be leaving there, 所以我不确定这种趋势的强度.  不过我们还是得留意一下.

 

零售业:价值下降9%

整个城市的零售业实际上非常强劲.  住房供应催生了对更多零售业的需求, but higher costs are severely limiting new construction.  更高的成本包括1. 建筑材料2. 土地成本. 3. 极高的财产税. higher insurance costs due to disasters and climate change concerns, 5. much higher costs to finish out the interior spaces for the tenant, etc.  San Antonio already has high rents, and so local tenants are having trouble making them affordable.

 

工业股:下跌8%

This property sector is doing very 好吧 in San Antonio with about 8-million square feet under construction and occupancies above 95%.  大盒子工业, 这是, 50,000平方英尺到500平方英尺,000平方英尺通常是建筑规格, 这是, 没有租户.  它们被租出去是因为需求高, but this takes very large capital allocations to pull off (read “lots and lots of patient money”).

 

投资销售

Investment sales transaction volume has been off considerably over the past year because of the drop in values I referenced above in the national marketplace. For example, the number of Apartment sales is off 50%.  Sales only happen maybe every 3 years or up to 10 years per property and now the pace is much slower.

 

Sellers are reluctant to put their properties on the market when profitability is stressed by the high cost of debt, 所以发现真正的真实价值是困难的.  Green Street Advisors, 我在上面提到过, say that the national average value across all property sectors prices is down 15% from the peak in 2022.  This is all primarily due to the increase in interest rates.

 

Consider that the Lender has about 60% to 75% of the purchase price invested in the property via the property loan, so the interest expense is a major non-operating expense.  With rates likely to go higher at some point, this continues to put downward pressure on prices.  然后, there is the uncertainty that the higher rates will push us into Recession, hurting the profitability of tenants and their ability to pay high rents.

 

Therefore, owners are reluctant to become sellers unless they are forced. The crisis comes when the owner must refinance and so they must get an appraisal, 这可能表明他们的财产价值下降了. 结果是, 贷款人不会提供那么多资金, 也许还没有现在的贷款额多. Coupled this with the higher interest expense so that the owner must come out of pocket with new money to put into his deal, but then he and his investors don’t have the new money to put into the deal and so the outcome is, 好吧, “不确定,“我们可以说吗?.

 

约,1美元.2-trillion of distressed debt nationally must be refinanced in the next 18 months.  华尔街公司, 从不错过任何机会, are raising billions of dollars for Opportunity Funds to pounce on problem properties.

 

但这一切都会过去.  我们住在一个很大的地区与国家的聪明, hardworking folks who care deeply about our community.  下一段好路就在我们前面.

 

请将意见发送至raub@marinadelreydentists.com